综合晨报-20250807

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly subsided, and the market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals. For precious metals, maintain a buy - on - dip strategy during the oscillation. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [2][3] - The stock market shows a certain sector rotation, and it is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors. The bond market is in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [49][50] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 1.06%. The actual implementation of US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, and the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. The market may turn to a weaker trend [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur resources are relatively supported. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may shrink [22] - Asphalt: The August production plan is lower than that in July, but actual production may exceed expectations. Supply increase space is neutral, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices [23][24] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. Supply is relatively loose, and the price is in a weak oscillation [25] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight precious metals oscillated. Due to concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar remained weak, and gold tested the upper - limit resistance of the three - month range. Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy [3] - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, copper prices oscillated around the MA60 moving average. There is no obvious market trend. LME copper may decline to $9500, and short positions are recommended [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two weeks, but aluminum rod production has rebounded. The price is in short - term oscillation with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - Zinc: The black market's short - selling atmosphere is insufficient. Shanghai zinc may have a phased rebound, but fundamentally, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [8] - Nickel: Shanghai nickel is in the late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to actively enter short positions [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin retraced its gains. It is expected to be in an oscillating market, and high - position short positions should be closed [11] - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: Their prices have risen significantly. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [19][20] - Coke and Coking Coal: Their prices are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatilities. Coke is bullish in the short term, and the downside space for coking coal is relatively small [17][18] - Ferroalloys and Related Products - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it has certain resilience compared to aluminum prices [6] - Alumina: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is increasing, and the market is in surplus. The price is under pressure but has limited downside space [7] Chemicals - Urea: The market's bullish sentiment has cooled. Short - term supply and demand are loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [26] - Methanol: The coastal olefin开工 is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. In the short term, the market is weak, while in the long term, attention should be paid to the peak season demand [27] - Pure Benzene: The price has rebounded slightly. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [28] - Benzene Ethylene: The expected output of a new device may have a negative impact. The supply - demand fundamentals provide weak support [29] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: Propylene demand is boosted, and supply is reduced, supporting the price. Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, and the supply - demand is increasing. Polypropylene has stable prices, but downstream demand is weak [29] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is oscillating, with cost support increasing and supply rising. Caustic soda is oscillating weakly, and the long - term supply pressure is high [30] - PX & PTA: They rebounded due to device production reduction. If PTA production cuts increase, PX demand may decline. Attention should be paid to PTA's valuation repair [31] - Ethylene Glycol: The price rebounded, and there is an expectation of increased demand in the future [32] Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level. Before the tariff issue is clear, the market is in oscillation [37] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy. There are uncertainties in soybean oil supply, and palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle [38] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure. The rapeseed market is in short - term oscillation [39] - Soybean No.1: There will be a policy - based auction of domestic soybeans. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing [40] - Corn: US corn prices are falling, and domestic corn futures are running weakly. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest for new - season corn [41] - Hogs: The spot price is weak, and the output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [42] - Eggs: The spot price is weak, and the futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy [43] - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton demand is weak. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong production - increase expectation [44] - Sugar: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in oscillation [45] - Apples: The futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the price of early - maturing apples and new - season production estimates [46] Others - Shipping: The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is accelerating its decline, and market pessimism may intensify [21] - Stock Index: The stock market shows an incremental upward trend, with small - and micro - cap stocks leading the rise. It is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors [49] - Bond: The bond market is in shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [50]