镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250807

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Nickel Market: On August 6, the Shanghai nickel main contract first declined and then rebounded. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports last week increased, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production in August remained flat, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in August increased, and export profits shrank. The demand for ternary materials and stainless - steel production increased, while the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals were loose, but the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, and the nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Stainless - steel Market: On August 6, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 644,600 tons (+6,100). In August, stainless - steel production was expected to increase, while the terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat. Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment was relatively large. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and the price was expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It was recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Nickel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closed at 120,790 yuan/ton on August 5, 120,800 yuan/ton on July 30, and 121,520 yuan/ton on August 6 [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract on August 6 was 87,840 hands (+3,022), and the open interest was 86,052 hands (-4,491) [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month, and basis between spot and futures) also changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 1,030 yuan/ton on August 5, 990 yuan/ton on July 30, and 40 yuan/ton on August 6 [1]. Stainless - steel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) fluctuated. For example, the near - month contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton on August 6, 12,960 yuan/ton on August 5, and 12,920 yuan/ton on July 30 [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel active contract on August 6 was 82,019 hands (+2,193), and the open interest was 84,046 hands (-1,903) [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month, and basis between spot and futures) changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 540 yuan/ton on August 6, 665 yuan/ton on August 5, and 580 yuan/ton on July 30 [1]. Inventory - Nickel Ore: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 7610,000 wet tons on August 1, 7470,000 wet tons on July 25, and 7150,000 wet tons on July 18, with an increase of 140,000 wet tons compared to July 25 [1]. - Nickel: The total social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 795 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the LME inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area increased [1]. - Stainless - steel: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 644,600 tons (+6,100) [1]. Industry News - Indonesia is promoting regulations for electric vehicle factories to encourage a shift from lithium - ion batteries to iron - based batteries. The global battery demand is expected to reach 8800 GWh by 2040, and Indonesia aims to seize the opportunity by ensuring raw material supply, improving supply - chain efficiency, and establishing strategic partnerships [1].