供给端传闻不断，焦煤强势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - After major macro - events are finalized, market uncertainty decreases, and the market will return to the industrial logic [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine's inventory is transferred to downstream, and the spot trading volume is high. The coking coal market is expected to remain strong, but its upward space depends on whether other black - sector varieties can catch up. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold and add positions to J01/JM01 contracts [4][5] - For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, with limited room for further increase. The demand for coke remains resilient due to high production enthusiasm of steel mills. Coke enterprises are reducing inventory, and the inventory in ports is increasing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal - washing plants have decreased, and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has also slightly declined [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants are reducing inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises are increasing inventory. Port inventory has decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is stable at 1150 yuan/ton. The active contract price is 1221 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan. The basis is - 51 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 147 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the daily average pig - iron output have also declined. Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap [3] Inventory - Coking enterprises are reducing inventory, steel mills' inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1470 yuan/ton after the fifth round of price increase. The active contract price is 1644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 88 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [3]