天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡偏强合成橡胶震荡运行-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and a de - stocking trend in inventory. Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as the bearish market sentiment is digested. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber at 14,800 - 15,000 and 15,700 - 16,000 respectively, and those of butadiene rubber at 10,800 - 11,000 and 11,800 - 12,000 respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - Natural Rubber: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 15,495, up 950 from the previous day; the trading volume was 261,478 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 183,004 lots, down 2.24%; the registered warrant volume was 176,470, down 40; the basis was - 1,020, down 950; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 125, up 25; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 150, unchanged; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 175, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was - 75, up 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 30, down 20; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 25, unchanged [1] - Synthetic Rubber: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 11,505, down 10; the trading volume was 51,579 lots, down 2,366; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,087 lots, down 2,345; the registered warrant volume was 10,310, down 230; the basis was - 138.33, up 10; the North - East China butadiene rubber spread was unchanged; the South - East China butadiene rubber spread was - 50, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was 55, up 85; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 5, up 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 20, down 5 [1] Supply Side - Natural Rubber: In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major production areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic production areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc., while Hainan has less precipitation [1] - Synthetic Rubber: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week. As of August 6, the daily post - tax profit margin of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion paint method was - 300.88 yuan/ton, down 154.86 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of China's S8S solution paint method was 522.12 yuan/ton, down 141.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the post - tax profit margin of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 1,141.58 yuan/ton, down 176.99 yuan/ton from the previous day. Synthetic rubber - related product devices are relatively stable [1] Inventory Side - Natural Rubber: As of August 1, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, down 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,600 tons, down 6,100 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, down 1,200 tons from last week [1] - Synthetic Rubber: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, up 142 tons from last week [1] Cost Side - Natural Rubber: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign production areas have fully started tapping. As of August 6, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Synthetic Rubber: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in US employment data, crude oil prices are expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of August 6, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 342.5 yuan/ton, up 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of August 6, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons from last week [1] Demand Side - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail volume of the national automobile market was 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. Tire supporting demand has increased [1]