沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous short positions when the price is low, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,280, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots. The open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots. The inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265. The Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35 [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was affected, with the registered and unregistered warehouse receipt total inventory at 9,674, an increase of 39.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7 [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04. The total inventory weight was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2]. Industry News - Copper Foil Industry: In July 2025, the overall copper foil industry's开工率 was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. It is expected to reach 78.24% in August [2]. - Project News: On August 6, Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s annual 40,000 - ton copper strip billet and tool steel production and processing project entered the environmental assessment approval publicity period [2]. - Smelter Maintenance: Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure for 22 - 4 weeks, affecting an estimated output of about 20,000 tons [2]. - Mine Incidents and Production Adjustments: Multiple mines had incidents or production adjustments, such as Codelco's BI Teniente copper mine suspending mining due to a collapse, and some mines reducing their production expectations [2][3]. Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment Impact: Domestic copper concentrate production (import) in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port, in - port, and inventory in the world (China) has changed compared to last week [3]. - Trading Strategy: Investors are advised to take profits on previous short positions when the price is low and pay attention to support and resistance levels of different copper markets [3].