HTSC·2025-08-07 02:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 67.80, down from the previous HKD 71.20 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to grow by 29% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 56% [1][4]. - The automotive business is projected to generate revenue of RMB 20.4 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a focus on high-quality development in the automotive industry [2][4]. - The smartphone and IoT businesses are expected to face challenges due to rising storage prices, which may impact profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - Q2 2025 automotive shipments are estimated at approximately 81,000 units, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing quarter-on-quarter, leading to a revenue of RMB 20.4 billion [2]. - The company anticipates total annual sales of 436,000 units for 2025, benefiting from scale effects that could enhance profit margins [2]. Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - In Q2 2025, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in China are expected to reach 10.4 million units, a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with market share rising to 15.1% [3]. - The IoT business is projected to grow by 37% year-on-year, while the internet services segment is expected to increase by 15% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.9%, 1.6%, and 1.2%, respectively, with net profit estimates also reduced by 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.5% [4]. - The target price of HKD 67.80 corresponds to a 40x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's valuation based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method [4][14].