贵金属日评：美联储官员暗示近期或重启降息，关注英国央行8月利率决议-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: Closing price was 782.50 yuan/g, with a change of 1.18 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 191,341.00, down 2,012.00 from the previous day; open interest was 215,212.00, down 3,440.00 from the previous day; inventory was 36,045.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - Shanghai Silver: Closing price was 9,182.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 107.00 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 372,060.00, down 728,580.00 from the previous day; open interest was 373,376.00, up 2,266.00 from the previous day; inventory was 1,208,033.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: Closing price was 3,431.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 3.20 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 143,644.00, down 6,488.00 from the previous day; open interest was 340,930.00, up 4,008.00 from the previous day; inventory was 38,679,703.32 (in troy ounces). [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: Closing price was 37.94 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.10 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 38,956.00, down 2,669.00 from the previous day; open interest was 122,977.00, down 711.00 from the previous day; inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces). [1] Market News and Macroeconomic Information - Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base in the US - Japan trade agreement [1] - Trump's advisors are pushing to temporarily fill the vacant positions on the Fed board, and Fed official Cook hinted at a possible rate cut in the near future [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $50 billion in bonds in Q3, which may cause a liquidity shock. US consumer - end inflation has risen, but due to the possible significant downward revision of new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December has increased [1] - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, and the market expects the ECB to cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates by the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,150 - $3,250 and the resistance level around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 yuan and the resistance level around 800 - 850 yuan; for London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan [1]