尿素早评：印标提振情绪，基本面仍有压力-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - India's IPL urea import tender price has jumped, exceeding market expectations, boosting the export demand of the domestic market. The urea resources have been continuously gathered at ports in the past month, and the current port inventory exceeds 500,000 tons. However, in terms of domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with the daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant, mainly affected by the increase in port - gathering. The upstream enterprise inventory is still about 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If the export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On August 6, compared with August 5, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.84%), in Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.61%); UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.44%); UR09 decreased by 22 yuan/ton (-1.24%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: In Henan (small - particle), it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%); in Hebei, it increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.72%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Yunnan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] - Downstream Prices: The melamine price in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/ton (1.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 18 yuan/ton [1] - Spread: The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1]