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成本企稳回升及政策预期支撑,新能源金属维持高位震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-07 02:59

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][5][9] Core Viewpoints - Cost stabilization, recovery, and policy expectations support the high - level consolidation of new energy metals. The supply - side contraction and cost increase expectations in the short - to - medium - term support the prices, but the expected output increase limits the upward space. For Jiangxi lithium mines, before official news on production cuts, one can cautiously bet on short - term potential upward opportunities for lithium through options. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output but weak demand, and their price increases are slowing down [1] - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating; the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations; the direction of the lithium carbonate market is unclear, and the price is oscillating [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情观点 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [5] - Information Analysis: As of August 6, the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased slightly, with the factory inventory rising by 0.4% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase but a 30.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative output was 2.21 million tons, a 20.0% year - on - year decrease. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% year - on - year decrease. In June, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease; from January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [5] - Main Logic: The supply of industrial silicon is continuously recovering, and the supply pressure may further increase in August. The demand has improved month - on - month, but the inventory and warehouse receipts may continue to accumulate. The silicon price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations and is expected to oscillate in the short term. If large factories resume production intensively, it may further suppress the price [6] Polysilicon - Viewpoint: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6] - Information Analysis: The transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 70. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase but a 39.67% year - on - year decrease; from January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% year - on - year decrease. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase; from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted relevant contract parameters [6][7] - Main Logic: Macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations cause wide - range price fluctuations. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has a significant impact on the price, and if the policy expectations fade, the price may reverse [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [9] - Information Analysis: On August 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.62%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 760 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 67,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 580 tons [9] - Main Logic: The market sentiment has cooled, but supply uncertainties remain. The fundamentals have improved slightly, with production decreasing slightly and demand being stable. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory is in line with expectations. The domestic supply - demand is generally balanced in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The price may rise if market sentiment recovers, and it will be affected by the outcome of mine shutdowns [10] 行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part [11][17][28]