中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，焦煤、硅铁涨幅居前-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - Domestic Macro: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - Asset Views: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - Stock Index Options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Iron Ore: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Coke: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Coking Coal: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Silicon Ferroalloy: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Manganese Ferroalloy: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Glass: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Soda Ash: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - Alumina: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Zinc: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - Lead: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Nickel: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - Stainless Steel: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Tin: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Asphalt: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - Methanol: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - PX: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - PTA: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Short - Fiber: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Bottle Chip: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Propylene: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - PP: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Plastic: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - PVC: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Caustic Soda: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - Protein Meal: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Hogs: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Rubber: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Pulp: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Cotton: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Sugar: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - Log: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].