Great Wall Securities·2025-08-07 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for BYD, indicating a projected stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [5]. Core Views - BYD's overseas sales have significantly increased, with cumulative exports exceeding 500,000 vehicles from January to July 2025, showcasing the company's strong market expansion capabilities [2]. - The company has actively reduced inventory in response to national calls against excessive competition, reflecting a strategic shift to balance supply and demand [8]. - The recent production and sales data indicate a proactive approach to inventory management, with production in July 2025 at 318,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, while sales rose by 0.56% to 344,000 units [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 602.3 billion CNY in 2023 to 1,423.9 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 30.0 billion CNY in 2023 to 82.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [1]. - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) of 20.8% in 2023, increasing to 24.1% by 2027, indicating strong profitability [1]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD's market share in the export of new energy buses is notable, with a 27.29% share in the first half of 2025, highlighting its leadership in the sector [10]. - The establishment of a new factory in Brazil marks a significant step in BYD's global strategy, enhancing local production capabilities and supply chain collaboration [8]. - The company's proactive response to industry challenges, including price competition, positions it favorably for sustainable growth in the new energy vehicle market [8].