有色金属周报（精炼锡）：多位美联储官员暗示下半年降息预期，生产和库存趋升及消费淡季压制锡价-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and North Kivu, Congo, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are all within a reasonable range. Given the expected increase in production and inventory and the influence of factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations and mine resumptions, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State determined on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental production of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and imports in August [20]. - China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (or remained flat) compared to last week, and China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month [27]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin mining company PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. The export volume in August may increase month - on - month, but due to the loss in imports and exports, China's refined tin imports and exports in August may decrease month - on - month [31]. Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of China's tin solder in August may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month [34]. - China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production and exports in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease month - on - month [42]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai and London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five - year average [8][10]. - China's refined tin social inventory, SHFE refined tin inventory, and the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory have increased compared to last week, while the LME refined tin inventory has decreased [11][13]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has shown a downward trend, indicating a potentially tight supply of domestic tin ore [14][16]. Other - The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid battery has remained flat compared to last week [44][47].