美联储官员鸽派发言或令铜价受益

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The global visible copper inventory has increased, and downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. The short - term macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,280 yuan/ton, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, spot copper holders lowered the premium. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources had a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment indexes increased. Spot merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to take profits [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy, providing macro - level support for copper prices. Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which may clear geopolitical risks and boost copper prices [3] - Mine End: FireFly Metals acquired the Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada in 2023 for 65 million Australian dollars. After the acquisition, it increased drilling, expanding the resource by 20 million tons to 60 million tons with a copper equivalent of about 3% [3] - Smelting and Import: The copper market needs to digest the impact of US tariff policies. LME copper prices declined due to inventory increases. High tariffs reduce the expected increase in copper supply outside the US, providing support for prices. Supply disruptions in Chile, such as the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, also affect production. Chile's copper exports to China rebounded in July [4] - Consumption: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. Resource nationalism poses risks to new supply, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity is needed by 2035 to meet demand [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 14,275 tons to 156,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,579 tons to 20,346 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 135,900 tons, a change of 16,600 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton