缺乏上涨驱动，板块整体承压

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]