Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]
化工日报：焦煤价格反弹，关注成本变动-20250807
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-07 05:05