上游装置临停，丙烯现货回暖

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment has improved, and the propylene futures market has been repaired. However, the falling crude oil price at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. Supply pressure still exists as some devices are shut down temporarily, but there are expectations of restarting PDH devices and releasing new production capacities. Demand has phased support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The data in this section includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][26][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - This part shows the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The data consists of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]