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中辉期货日刊-20250807
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-07 05:09
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bearish: Crude oil, asphalt [1][2] - Cautiously Bearish: LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, caustic soda, methanol, propylene [1][2] - Cautiously Bullish: Soda ash, urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. Pay attention to the key support level of $60 [1]. - LPG: Cost drag vs. high basis, with the downside support for liquefied gas strengthening [1]. - L: Cost support weakens, and a cautious bearish stance is recommended [14]. - PP: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still pressure to destock [24]. - PVC: Cost support improves, but the fundamentals are weak, and a rebound is expected to be followed by a bearish trend [30]. - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish view is held [33]. - PTA: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [37]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro - sentiment has subsided, and a cautious bearish view is taken [41]. - Glass: Spot quotes are lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [45]. - Soda ash: Inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the 10 - day moving average [50]. - Caustic soda: The subsidy for liquid chlorine has narrowed, and the futures price center has moved down [54]. - Methanol: The expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and crude oil is oscillating weakly, so a cautious bearish view is recommended [59]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum [2]. - Asphalt: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply is sufficient, so a bearish view is taken [2]. - Propylene: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 1.11%, and SC down 0.96% [5]. - Basic Logic: OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually being released, and the oil price center still has room to decline [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to long - term, due to the substitution of new energy and OPEC's expansion of production, supply is gradually becoming excessive. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. In the short - term, the trend is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support below is gradually rising. Consider taking profits on short positions and then waiting and watching. SC should be monitored in the range of [490 - 505] [8]. LPG - Market Review: On August 6, the PG main contract closed at 3,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price has declined, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The cost is the main drag on liquefied gas, while the basis is at a high level [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of liquefied gas to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. In the short - term, the RSI data is in the oversold range, and the downside support is strengthening, so there may be a short - term rebound. Consider taking profits on short positions and then lightly opening long positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [3750 - 3850] [12]. L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 121 yuan/ton [16]. - Basic Logic: Cost support has weakened, spot prices have continuously declined, the basis has weakened, and social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, most plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure, and downstream restocking demand during the off - season is insufficient [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [18]. PP - Market Review: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton [22]. - Basic Logic: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, domestic demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season, and downstream restocking demand is insufficient. Although there are many short - term upstream maintenance activities, the production capacity release pressure in the third quarter is high [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long strategy [24]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5,042 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,773 [28]. - Basic Logic: The price of calcium carbide has continuously increased, and coking coal has returned to a bullish trend, improving cost support. However, there are few maintenance plans in August, new production capacity is being released, and it is the off - season for both domestic and international demand, with weakened export support. Social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand pattern in August is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: In August, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. Wait for the rebound and then take a bearish position [31]. PX - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [34]. - Basic Logic: There are few changes in domestic and overseas plants. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but PX inventory is still relatively high. PXN is not low, and the basis has weakened. There is no macro - bullish news recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market has declined [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. PX should be monitored in the range of [6700 - 6830] [36]. PTA - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [38]. - Basic Logic: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, and the start - up rate has declined. The demand side is generally weak, and the start - up rates of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weakening. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation for PTA in August has eased, and there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors recently [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4740] [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [42]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas ethylene glycol plants have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly weakening, and terminal demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand is in a tight balance from July to August, and the inventory is generally low [43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions cautiously and sell call options. EG should be monitored in the range of [4390 - 4450] [44]. Glass - Market Review: Spot market quotes have been lowered, the futures price is showing differentiation, the Hubei basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [47]. - Basic Logic: At the macro level, there is no unexpected incremental policy for real estate in the Politburo meeting, and the official manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month and is below the boom - bust line. The market risk appetite has declined, and the sentiment in the commodity market has been dampened. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus has shifted from expectations to fundamentals [48]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG2509 should be monitored in the range of [1050, 1100] [49]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The spot quotes of heavy soda ash are showing differentiation, the futures price is rising and falling unevenly, the basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged, and the number of valid forecasts has increased [51]. - Basic Logic: The hype about macro - policies has cooled down. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been undergoing maintenance and restarts, resulting in a slight reduction in overall production. The weekly supply of soda ash has decreased, and the demand side mostly continues to take delivery based on rigid demand. The inventory of soda ash plants has ended three weeks of destocking and is still at a historically high level [52]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be patient and wait for the correction to end. Temporarily wait and watch or take a cautious bearish stance [52]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot quotes of liquid caustic soda are stable, the futures price has declined, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [56]. - Basic Logic: On the supply side, summer plant maintenance has led to a decline in industry start - up. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and the production of alumina has gradually increased. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda has slightly decreased, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the production profit has increased. The supply and demand of caustic soda are balanced, and the inventory is high compared to the same period [57]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy is recommended in the text [58]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [59]. - Basic Logic: Domestic methanol plants under maintenance have resumed production, and the start - up load of overseas methanol plants remains high, increasing the expected supply pressure. The expected demand has weakened, and the social inventory is accumulating, but it is still relatively low overall. The basis and the 9 - 1 spread have weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options. Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Hold the MA9 - 1 reverse spread. MA should be monitored in the range of [2365 - 2410] [2]. Urea - Market Review: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The domestic supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is generally weak. However, there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum. The valuation of urea is not high, and coal prices are capped and supported under the background of the "export quota system" and "peak - summer power consumption" [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for UR601. At the same time, sell put options. UR should be monitored in the range of [1750 - 1790] [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - Basic Logic: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply for asphalt is sufficient. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly open short positions. BU should be monitored in the range of [3500 - 3600] [2]. Propylene - Market Review: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - Basic Logic: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the cost support for PDH has weakened, the upstream start - up rate has marginally weakened, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for 4 consecutive weeks and is at a high level compared to the same period [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions or hold the 1 - 2 calendar spread reverse strategy. PL should be monitored in the range of [6350 - 6550] [2].