Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coke and coking coal - fluctuate [6][8][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [11][14][16]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefin - wide - range fluctuate [21][23][25]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [37][38][40]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Live pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - range fluctuate; Oils - fluctuate strongly [41][43][47]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It assesses the impact of events such as tariffs, policies, and supply - demand relationships on prices and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Affected by events like Trump's tariff policies and Fed's stance, with the Fed's mixed signals on interest rates and corporate investment moves, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Treasury Bonds: After a monthly - level adjustment, the bond market is expected to recover in the short - term due to factors like the macro data vacuum period, stable and loose capital, and institutional demand for position - filling. However, the previous adjustment was not deep, so the recovery will be limited [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is affected by factors such as the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" and the supply - demand balance. The futures price is above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and it is expected to enter a fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - Iron Ore: Considering the decline in iron ore shipments and the expected decrease in iron - water demand, but with potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg in shorting other black varieties, with the 09 contract supported at 770 [8]. - Coke and Coking Coal: For coking coal, the supply is limited, and the demand has returned to normal after restocking. The price is expected to fluctuate. For coke, after the fifth price increase, the supply has increased, and the demand is stable. It is expected to follow coking coal and fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate stance, tariff policies, and supply - demand in the off - season, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The technical support is at 77600 [11]. - Aluminum: The bauxite shipment from Guinea is decreasing, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing. With the decline in downstream demand and inventory accumulation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels [13]. - Nickel: The supply is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - Tin: The supply and demand gap is improving, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [17]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as the US employment data, interest - rate expectations, and tariff policies, the precious metals' prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2530, with short - term long opportunities in the far - month contracts [25]. - Styrene: The fundamentals are not favorable, and the macro is positive. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [27]. - Rubber: With limited cost and supply support, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [28]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually picking up. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and pressured at the top, with range trading recommended [32]. - Methanol: The supply is slightly increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the overall industrial product prices [33]. - Polyolefin: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [34]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to short the 09 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton production and consumption are both increasing, and the inventory is rising. The Xinjiang production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [38]. - Apple: The spot market is weak, with slow inventory clearance and seasonal fruit competition. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [38]. - Jujube: The new - season production in the producing area is uncertain, and the sales area has limited arrivals. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the supply will increase significantly after September. In the long - term, the supply will continue to grow. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 05 - 03 arbitrage [42]. - Eggs: The short - term supply is affected by the high - temperature season, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the long - term supply is expected to increase due to high - level replenishment. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the elimination situation [43]. - Corn: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally and consider the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage [44]. - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to have limited upside. In the long - term, there may be a supply gap. It is recommended to build long positions cautiously in the short - term and adjust positions in the long - term [46]. - Oils: Although there are positive factors such as the expected reduction in palm oil supply and the improvement of soybean oil inventory, the short - term supply - demand situation and high inventory may limit the upward rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and consider arbitrage strategies [47].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250807
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-07 05:09