化工日报：PTA现货加工费低位，关注计划外检修-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is range - bound, but the oil market will turn from boom to bust in the second half of the year as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates and new supplies enter the market. Unless the US increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a significant decline in supply [1]. - The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level. Although the short - term supply - demand situation has improved due to PTA maintenance, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [1][2]. - The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The improvement of the demand side still needs to wait for the seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August [2]. - PF is dragged down by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness, and the near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory warehouse receipt cancellation. The PR processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the operating rates and processing fees of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [71][72][80] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [90][92][99]