FICC日报：船司价格高频调整，关注马士基WEEK34周价格是否再度修正-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - December Contract: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - Single - side: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].