原油日报：特朗普对印度加征额外关税-20250807

Market News and Important Data - September delivery light - crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 81 cents to $64.35 a barrel, a 1.24% decline; October delivery Brent crude futures fell 75 cents to $66.89 a barrel, a 1.11% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.23% at 498 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of Arab light crude oil for September sales to Asia by $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 per - barrel premium in August. The OSP for September sales to the US is a $4.2 - per - barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average, and for northwest Europe, it's a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [1] - As of the week ending August 4, the total refined - oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.072 million barrels, up 2.024 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 145,000 barrels to 7.14 million barrels, medium distillate inventories rose by 159,000 barrels to 2.276 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel - oil inventories climbed by 1.72 million barrels to 9.656 million barrels [1] - US President Trump said there's a high possibility of holding a summit with Zelensky and Putin, with the location yet to be determined; he also mentioned that gasoline prices would be below $2 per gallon [1] - White House officials said secondary sanctions on Russia are expected to be implemented on Friday, and Russia has expressed its desire to meet with Trump [1] - Germany is preparing to launch a €100 - billion ($116 - billion) investment fund named "Deutschlandfonds" after the parliamentary summer recess in September or October. It aims to secure strategic sectors and boost the domestic capital market, and may expand its scope later [1] Investment Logic - The Russia - Ukraine situation has new developments. Trump announced a 25% additional tariff on India and plans to meet Putin and Zelensky next week. Before the meeting, the US is unlikely to intensify sanctions on Russia. Trump is concerned about inflation, as sanctioning Russia could lead to soaring oil prices and inflation, making it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. The "tariff card" is a means to levy more tariffs and force a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks are the US intensifying sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [3]