燃料油日报：油价震荡运行，燃料油短期市场矛盾有限-20250807

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content, so this part is skipped. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating, and there are limited short - term market contradictions in the fuel oil market [1]. - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.6% at 2,835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.31% at 3,550 yuan/ton [2]. - After continuous corrections, the crude oil price has stabilized and is currently in an oscillating state, with limited short - term directional guidance for FU and LU prices, while the medium - term expectation of a looser balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure continues to adjust, with crack spreads and monthly spreads oscillating weakly. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum. Although the power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality. In the short term, there is limited driving force, but considering the long - term trends, there is still structural support. If the crack spreads are fully adjusted and attract a significant increase in refinery demand, there may be an opportunity for the market structure to strengthen again [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the overseas diesel shortage eases, the support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity, once the crack profit is appropriate, supply will be released. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook is not optimistic [2]. Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: The outlook is oscillating [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The outlook is oscillating [3]. - Cross - variety: Positions in shorting the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately stopped for profit [3]. - Cross - period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually stopped for profit [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].