集运日报：大宗市场整体偏暖，但班轮公司小幅下调运价，盘面冲高回落，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250807

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].