半导体8月投资策略：看好本土制造产业链和周期性复苏的模拟芯片

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, focusing on domestic manufacturing supply chains and the cyclical recovery of analog chips [1] Market Review - In July 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 3.08%, underperforming the electronic industry by 3.51 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points [14] - The semiconductor sub-sectors that performed well included discrete devices (+8.21%), semiconductor equipment (+3.75%), and integrated circuit packaging and testing (+3.48%) [14][23] - The SW semiconductor index's PE (TTM) was 87.13x, positioned at the 67.15 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation [25] Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.91 billion in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% [5][58] - The sales in China were $17.24 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [5][58] - The global silicon wafer shipment area in Q2 2025 was 3.327 billion square inches, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [6][58] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on domestic manufacturing companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Northern Huachuang, as well as companies in the analog chip sector like Sanan Optoelectronics and SiFive [6][7] - The cyclical recovery in the industrial sector is expected to be strong, with TI reporting growth in all downstream revenues except for automotive [6] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the active fund's semiconductor heavy holdings accounted for 10.1%, which is an overweight of 5.6 percentage points compared to the semiconductor market cap [4][42] - Notable changes in the top twenty holdings included the addition of Naxin Micro and Si Rui Pu, replacing Fengcai Technology and Aojie Technology [4][44] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, including: - Hua Hong Semiconductor: 2025E net profit of 9.2 billion yuan, PE of 103 [8] - SMIC: 2025E net profit of 57.8 billion yuan, PE of 91 [8] - Sanan Optoelectronics: 2025E net profit of -0.92 billion yuan, PE of -147 [8]