ADD(SH:603089) CMS·2025-08-07 07:06Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the domestic shock absorber industry, focusing on the automotive aftermarket for over 30 years, with a product range of nearly 20,000 models covering most global vehicle types [8][11] - The company is expected to experience strong growth in performance due to new capacity being released in the second half of 2024, driving a dual boost in profitability and valuation [1][8] - The aftermarket for shock absorbers is significant, with potential for domestic companies to increase market share, as demand is closely tied to vehicle ownership and replacement cycles [8][33] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 1,758 million yuan in 2023 to 3,890 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 59 million yuan in 2023 to 208 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 69.4 in 2023 to 19.6 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3] Company Overview - The company has a strong international presence, with over 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly North America [25][28] - The company has established relationships with major global clients such as Tenneco and ZF Group, enhancing its market position [25][26] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with a new manufacturing base in Thailand expected to enhance its global delivery capabilities [39][40] Industry Insights - The shock absorber market is characterized by a large aftermarket potential, with an estimated global demand exceeding 800 million units and a market size of approximately 700 billion yuan [34][35] - The industry is highly competitive and fragmented, with a mix of international and domestic players, providing opportunities for growth for quality domestic manufacturers [36] - The replacement cycle for shock absorbers is typically 6-8 years, creating a consistent demand driven by vehicle ownership and usage patterns [33][36]