8月转债月报：高位之上，仍有可为-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current convertible bond valuation is at a high level, but compared to the previous high in 2022, the current pure bond yield is lower, and the rigid demand for fixed - income + allocation gives some upward space for convertible bond valuation. In August, the equity market still has an environment for further upward movement, supported by domestic policies and international factors [1][13] - Specific investment directions to focus on include anti - involution (Jingneng Convertible Bond, Muyuan Convertible Bond, Wens Convertible Bond), innovative drugs (Huahai Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond), and humanoid robots (Keli Convertible Bond, Zhenghai Convertible Bond) [2][18] Summary by Directory 1. August Convertible Bond Outlook: Still Promising at High Levels - In July, the equity market rose, with the Wind All - A Index rising 4.7% monthly. The convertible bond market had a double - wheel drive of underlying stocks and valuation, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 2.9%. By the end of July, the convertible bond price and valuation were still at high levels [9] - Although the Politburo meeting in late July was slightly below market expectations, anti - involution policies are ongoing, and supportive policies are being implemented. The less - than - expected US non - farm data increases the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, which is beneficial for the equity market [13] 2. Market Review in July 2.1 Equity Market - The A - share market rose in July, with the Wind All - A Index rising 4.7% again. The market traded around three main lines: anti - involution, AI, and innovative drugs. The anti - involution policy, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Project, and continuous positive news in AI and innovative drugs drove the market [19] - In terms of structure, small - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks, and growth stocks outperformed value stocks. Most industries in the equity market rose, with steel, building materials, medicine, and TMT sectors leading the gains, while defensive sectors such as banks, utilities, and transportation declined [24] 2.2 Convertible Bond Market - In July, the convertible bond market had a positive sentiment, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 2.9%, relatively underperforming the equity market. The trading volume increased, with an average daily turnover of 728.9 billion yuan [30] - Among industries, 28 out of 29 convertible bond industry indices rose. Public utilities, electronics, medicine, building materials, and power equipment sectors performed well. Individual bonds such as Tianlu Convertible Bond, Saili Convertible Bond, and Borui Convertible Bond led the gains [34] 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond valuation continued to rise to a historical high in July. The end - of - month 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 29.3%, up 1.6pp from the end of June, at the 96.5% and 94.1% quantile levels since 2018 and 2021 respectively [35] - The median convertible bond price and parity also increased, while the median conversion premium rate decreased slightly, and the median pure bond premium rate increased [40] 4. Convertible Bond Supply and Demand 4.1 Convertible Bond Supply - In July 2025, 3 new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 8.452 billion yuan. Three convertible bonds obtained CSRC registration approval, with a to - be - issued scale of 2.62 billion yuan, and 2 public convertible bond board plans were added, with a to - be - issued scale of 2.496 billion yuan [48][51][53] 4.2 Convertible Bond Demand - The share of the Convertible Bond ETF increased rapidly in July, with the share increasing by 572 million to 3.549 billion and the circulation scale increasing by 8.259 billion yuan to 45.183 billion yuan [54] 5. Clause Tracking 5.1 Redemption - As of July 31, 20 convertible bonds confirmed forced redemption, 10 might be subject to forced redemption, and 19 would not be forced to redeem [55] 5.2 Downward Revision - As of July 31, 8 convertible bonds confirmed downward revision, 6 proposed downward revision, and 43 temporarily did not revise downward [58]