双焦月报：反内卷情绪降温，宽幅震荡-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as the anti - involution sentiment cools down, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. The supply of coking coal is affected by the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions in September, while the cost support for coke remains. On the demand side, steel mills have high profits and no production cuts, with rigid demand remaining high. For coking coal, the price is expected to run in a wide and strong range of 1030 - 1300. For coke, the price is expected to run in a wide and volatile range of 1600 - 1800 [5][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Interpretation - Domestic Market: Frequent market news amplifies market sentiment. Policies such as the coal production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration in 2025 and the "276 - workday production plan" of Wanjie Coal Industry have affected the market [8][9] - Coal Supply: From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal increased year - on - year, but the daily output of sample mines decreased month - on - month. Although coal mine profits have improved and there is a possibility of increased production, the impact of the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [10] - Coking Coal Imports and Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal decreased year - on - year but increased slightly month - on - month. The import volume of Mongolian, Australian, Russian, and Canadian coking coal all increased marginally [16] - Coking Coal Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of sample mines and ports decreased, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased. The inventory has shifted downward, and the coking coal price is supported [26] - Coke Supply: From January to June 2025, the coke output increased year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of independent coking enterprises remained flat, while that of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Affected by the rising price of coking coal, the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the market supply has tightened marginally [35] - Coke Imports and Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of coke decreased year - on - year. Global economic slowdown and other factors suppress the export demand for coke, but the impact on the domestic market is small [44] - Coke Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreasing significantly, that of steel enterprises decreasing slightly, and that of ports increasing. The inventory has shifted downstream, and the market has shifted to on - demand procurement [47] - Iron Element Demand: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of molten iron by steel enterprises remained high, and the consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years. The inventory of five major steel products was in the process of destocking. Although some steel mills had short - term maintenance, the overall production willingness of steel mills did not decline significantly [56] - Iron Element Terminal Demand: From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment increasing and real estate development investment decreasing. High - temperature and rainy weather and weak capital improvement restricted the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar in August is expected to decline [64] - Basis and Term Structure: Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have fluctuated at low levels. The basis of coking coal and coke has fallen from high levels. For both, the contango structure has steepened, and cross - month arbitrage can conduct reverse arbitrage. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis strengthens [74]