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双焦月报:宏观情绪退潮,回归基本面博弈-20250902
Hong Ta Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Views - As the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. Coking coal supply continues to recover, while terminal demand remains stable with on - demand procurement. Coking enterprises' production control eases marginally, and short - term supply shows signs of convergence. Overall demand maintains resilience but lacks significant growth, and steel mills' inventory replenishment remains cautious. [4][81] - For coking coal, the weighted price of coking coal futures shows a callback during the rebound, with increasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 1030 - 1300. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] - For coke, the weighted price of coke futures also shows a callback during the rebound, with decreasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1450 - 1800. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Interpretation Domestic Market - Multiple departments are formulating growth - stabilizing plans for ten key industries to reverse the downward trend of industrial product prices and repair corporate profit expectations. The upcoming implementation of the revised "Anti - Unfair Competition Law" and the deepening of systematic governance frameworks in key industries, along with global fiscal and monetary policy support, are expected to strengthen corporate profit repair and capital market rebound momentum. [7] - In July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue turned positive to +0.1%, and tax revenue increased for four consecutive months. Government - funded revenue decline narrowed to - 0.7%, indicating short - term improvement in the land market but restricted by weak real - estate sales. The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure remained at 12.1%, with priority given to the people's livelihood sectors, while infrastructure expenditure was divided and technology expenditure decreased sharply. [7] International Market - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 22 increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Powell said the Fed is open to rate cuts due to potential downward risks to employment growth. [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Supply - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal was 2.779 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% with a declining growth rate. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal both decreased month - on - month. Although some coal mines' coal - output rhythm was affected by policies and over - production rectification, the overall resumption of production was not significantly disrupted. [9] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 62.5042 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.92% but a slight month - on - month increase. Mongolia and Russia's dominance in coking coal imports strengthened, accounting for 76.74% of the total. Mongolian coal focused on inventory reduction, with a 14.01% year - on - year decrease in imports. Russian coal arrivals increased by 3.94% year - on - year. Canada and Australia are expected to see stable growth in arrivals as some domestic terminal markets signed long - term agreements with them this year. [15] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of 523 clean coal sample mines and coking coal port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 coking coal - integrated steel enterprises increased slightly. The transfer from raw coal to clean coal was smooth, and the overall market was in an active de - stocking state. [25] 3.3 Coke Supply - From January to July 2025, the coke production was 292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.91%. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises and 247 integrated steel enterprises both decreased month - on - month. The average profit per ton of coke was 45 yuan. Some coking enterprises planned to increase production due to profit repair, but large - scale resumption of production was restricted by the previous sharp increase in coking coal prices. [34] Import and Export - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export volume of coke and semi - coke was 439,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.92%. The decline in export volume has little impact on the domestic market. Global economic slowdown, steel production contraction in Southeast Asian countries, and intensified international steel price competition have suppressed coke export demand. [43] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the weekly coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises remaining flat, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises remaining flat, and the port inventory decreasing slightly. Coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly, indicating restricted shipment rhythm and increased inventory pressure. Port inventory decline was related to trading rhythm and port - collection structure adjustment, with short - term circulation being sluggish. [46] 3.4 Iron Element Demand Iron Water Production and Consumption - On September 1, 2025, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel was 33 yuan, with a slight decline. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises remained high and flat month - on - month. The consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline and was at a historical low. Steel mills' inventory increased slightly, and the inventory - replenishment rhythm slowed down, with overall procurement based on rigid demand. [56] Terminal Demand - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28,822.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 12%. The cumulative export of steel products from January to July was 67.9824 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. Private investment growth decline deepened, and factors such as the real - estate market downturn and export decline suppressed private enterprises' investment ability and willingness. [64] 3.5 Basis and Term Structure - For coking coal, the basis is - 9 yuan, having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 85 to +138. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and reverse arbitrage can be carried out for cross - month arbitrage. [72] - For coke, the basis is - 38 yuan, also having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 132 to +55. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and month - to - month reverse arbitrage can be carried out. [72]
2025年8月碳酸锂月报:基本面偏弱,难以持续反弹-20250807
Hong Ta Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 07:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures is likely to rise first and then fall due to the weak fundamentals, with supply surplus intensifying and demand lacking elasticity [7][48] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Spot and Futures Price Trends - In July 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price rebounded and closed positive. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of lithium carbonate was 70,300 yuan/ton, the futures price closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,380 yuan/ton. The spot rebounded more than the futures, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [5][8] - As of August 1, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt quantity of lithium carbonate was 6,605 lots, a decrease of 16,023 lots compared to the end of June. The futures open interest was 216,103 lots, a decrease of 114,721 lots compared to the end of June [12] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Production - In July 2025, the domestic monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 26%. The production growth was mainly driven by hedging opportunities in the futures market, which prompted lithium salt enterprises with low operating rates to resume production. The overall supply capacity of the industry significantly recovered, and the production in August is expected to continue growing [6][17] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate showed a pattern of "decreased imports and increased exports." The total import volume was 18,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%, and the import average price was 73,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7.8%. The export volume was 430 tons, a month-on-month increase of 49.8% [6][21] 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Phosphate Iron Lithium Production**: In July 2025, China's phosphate iron lithium material production increased by about 1.86% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with an industry operating rate of about 58%. In August, the production lines of iron lithium cathode material factories are expected to speed up [26] - **Ternary Precursor Production**: In July 2025, the production of SMM ternary precursors increased steadily, with a month-on-month increase of 5.71% and a year-on-year increase of 5.52%. In August, the production growth rate is expected to slow down, with a projected month-on-month increase of 5.4% [30] - **Ternary Material Production**: In July 2025, the production of ternary materials continued to grow, with a month-on-month increase of 5.75% and a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. The overall industry operating rate rebounded to 45%. In August, the production growth rate is expected to moderately slow down, with a projected month-on-month increase of 3.07% [34] - **Power Battery Production**: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51.4%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.4% [38] - **Power Battery Installation Volume**: In June 2025, the power battery installation volume in China was 58.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 10.7 GWh, accounting for 18.4% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; the installation volume of phosphate iron lithium batteries was 47.4 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [41] - **Terminal Consumption**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales of new vehicles [44]
双焦月报:反内卷情绪降温,宽幅震荡-20250807
Hong Ta Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 07:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as the anti - involution sentiment cools down, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. The supply of coking coal is affected by the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions in September, while the cost support for coke remains. On the demand side, steel mills have high profits and no production cuts, with rigid demand remaining high. For coking coal, the price is expected to run in a wide and strong range of 1030 - 1300. For coke, the price is expected to run in a wide and volatile range of 1600 - 1800 [5][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Frequent market news amplifies market sentiment. Policies such as the coal production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration in 2025 and the "276 - workday production plan" of Wanjie Coal Industry have affected the market [8][9] - **Coal Supply**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal increased year - on - year, but the daily output of sample mines decreased month - on - month. Although coal mine profits have improved and there is a possibility of increased production, the impact of the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [10] - **Coking Coal Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal decreased year - on - year but increased slightly month - on - month. The import volume of Mongolian, Australian, Russian, and Canadian coking coal all increased marginally [16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of sample mines and ports decreased, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased. The inventory has shifted downward, and the coking coal price is supported [26] - **Coke Supply**: From January to June 2025, the coke output increased year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of independent coking enterprises remained flat, while that of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Affected by the rising price of coking coal, the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the market supply has tightened marginally [35] - **Coke Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of coke decreased year - on - year. Global economic slowdown and other factors suppress the export demand for coke, but the impact on the domestic market is small [44] - **Coke Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreasing significantly, that of steel enterprises decreasing slightly, and that of ports increasing. The inventory has shifted downstream, and the market has shifted to on - demand procurement [47] - **Iron Element Demand**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of molten iron by steel enterprises remained high, and the consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years. The inventory of five major steel products was in the process of destocking. Although some steel mills had short - term maintenance, the overall production willingness of steel mills did not decline significantly [56] - **Iron Element Terminal Demand**: From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment increasing and real estate development investment decreasing. High - temperature and rainy weather and weak capital improvement restricted the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar in August is expected to decline [64] - **Basis and Term Structure**: Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have fluctuated at low levels. The basis of coking coal and coke has fallen from high levels. For both, the contango structure has steepened, and cross - month arbitrage can conduct reverse arbitrage. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis strengthens [74]