债券增税对行业影响有限，期货市场推动“反内卷”

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [2][3]. Core Insights - The impact of the new VAT on interest income from government bonds and financial bonds is limited, with an estimated additional tax burden of 5.304 billion yuan, which constitutes only 1.18% of the projected 2024 revenue for securities firms. This suggests that the overall financial impact on the industry is manageable [3][10]. - The introduction of "anti-involution" rules in the futures industry aims to standardize commission practices and enhance transparency, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape and service quality among futures companies [4][11]. - Recent market performance shows a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the CSI 300 Index down by 1.75%. The non-bank financial index fell by 2.40%, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [12][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which will affect the securities industry's bond holding structure but is expected to have a limited financial impact [10][11]. Market Review - The report notes a decrease in trading activity, with a total A-share transaction amount of 9.05 trillion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.11% week-on-week decline [12][14]. Industry Key Data Tracking 1. Market Performance and Scale: The report indicates a downward trend in major indices, with the CSI 300 Index and the ChiNext Index both experiencing declines [12][14]. 2. Credit Business: As of August 1, the market had 3,050.10 million pledged shares, accounting for 3.73% of total equity, with a margin balance of 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.67% week-on-week increase [17][20]. 3. Fund Issuance: In July 2025, new fund issuance totaled 95.689 billion units, with a notable increase in equity fund issuance [17][19]. 4. Investment Banking: The report states that the equity underwriting scale in July 2025 reached 66.182 billion yuan, with IPOs accounting for 24.164 billion yuan [17][19]. 5. Bond Market: The report notes a 1.00% decline in the total price index of bonds since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.71%, up 9.82 basis points year-to-date [17][20]. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing decline in average commission rates in the Shanghai region, with a significant drop in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards lower trading costs [26][28].