2025年8月碳酸锂月报：基本面偏弱，难以持续反弹-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures is likely to rise first and then fall due to the weak fundamentals, with supply surplus intensifying and demand lacking elasticity [7][48] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Spot and Futures Price Trends - In July 2025, the lithium carbonate futures price rebounded and closed positive. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of lithium carbonate was 70,300 yuan/ton, the futures price closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,380 yuan/ton. The spot rebounded more than the futures, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [5][8] - As of August 1, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt quantity of lithium carbonate was 6,605 lots, a decrease of 16,023 lots compared to the end of June. The futures open interest was 216,103 lots, a decrease of 114,721 lots compared to the end of June [12] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Production - In July 2025, the domestic monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 26%. The production growth was mainly driven by hedging opportunities in the futures market, which prompted lithium salt enterprises with low operating rates to resume production. The overall supply capacity of the industry significantly recovered, and the production in August is expected to continue growing [6][17] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate showed a pattern of "decreased imports and increased exports." The total import volume was 18,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%, and the import average price was 73,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7.8%. The export volume was 430 tons, a month-on-month increase of 49.8% [6][21] 3.4 Downstream Demand - Phosphate Iron Lithium Production: In July 2025, China's phosphate iron lithium material production increased by about 1.86% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with an industry operating rate of about 58%. In August, the production lines of iron lithium cathode material factories are expected to speed up [26] - Ternary Precursor Production: In July 2025, the production of SMM ternary precursors increased steadily, with a month-on-month increase of 5.71% and a year-on-year increase of 5.52%. In August, the production growth rate is expected to slow down, with a projected month-on-month increase of 5.4% [30] - Ternary Material Production: In July 2025, the production of ternary materials continued to grow, with a month-on-month increase of 5.75% and a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. The overall industry operating rate rebounded to 45%. In August, the production growth rate is expected to moderately slow down, with a projected month-on-month increase of 3.07% [34] - Power Battery Production: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51.4%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.4% [38] - Power Battery Installation Volume: In June 2025, the power battery installation volume in China was 58.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 10.7 GWh, accounting for 18.4% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; the installation volume of phosphate iron lithium batteries was 47.4 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [41] - Terminal Consumption: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales of new vehicles [44]