华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. The aluminum ingots are expected to show a short-term strong and volatile trend, with the price mainly moving at a high level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory-to-consumption trend [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, after the July employment data was weaker than expected, traders bet that the number of Fed rate cuts this year would exceed previous expectations, and the US dollar weakened. The domestic new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects that government bonds in July will support the year - on - year increase in new social financing, and the substitution effect may turn the new loan scale negative, but the growth rate is still high [1] - In terms of the supply side of aluminum, the port shipping in Guinea was suspended due to the previous mining rights issue, which drove the alumina futures price up slightly, but the impact on futures is relatively limited. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. Xinjiang Zhonghe's 2.4 - million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026. Affected by the rainy season, the shipping volume of Guinea's bauxite decreased from late June to July, and the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea by China is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited. The inventory accumulation of bauxite in China is expected to slow down gradually starting from August, and the total bauxite inventory is expected to reach an inflection point from August to September [2] - In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly month - on - month in July, mainly due to the commissioning of the second - phase replacement project of Shandong - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum. As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and up 20,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Currently, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Be vigilant about the increased pricing of macro risks. The rate - cut expectation provides short - term support for prices. Pay attention to the promotion of domestic policies. The aluminum price is expected to mainly move at a high level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - to - consumption trend [3] Later Concerns - For finished products, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum, pay attention to changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [4]