2025年7月贸易数据解读：7月外贸数据超预期，后期面临较大下行压力

Export Data - In July 2025, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than June[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 5.5 percentage points compared to June, contributing a 3.3 percentage point downward effect on overall export growth[4] - Exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan grew by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, with significant increases of 1.7, 11.3, and 15.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Import Data - In July 2025, China's import value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 3.0 percentage points from June[6] - The month-on-month import value rose by 6.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 1.8%[6] - Imports from the US decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.4 percentage points compared to June[6] Future Outlook - The forecast for August indicates a potential decline in export growth to around 4.0%, with expectations of further downward pressure due to high US tariffs and weakening "export rush" effects[5] - The recent trade agreements between the US and other economies may lead to increased tariffs, further suppressing global trade and impacting China's exports negatively[5] - The import growth momentum is expected to depend on domestic demand policies, with potential support from government measures in the latter part of the year[8]