贵金属数据日报-20250807

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 783.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.19% to 9,182 yuan/kg [3]. - The US July non - farm payrolls report shows that the US labor market has been cooling since April and may weaken further. Fed officials' statements on approaching interest - rate cuts, Trump's political actions, and new tariffs, along with poor US economic data, have increased the probability of an August Fed rate cut to 90%, supporting precious metal prices. However, the continuous rise of risk assets like stocks and high risk appetite have made the domestic gold price weaker than the overseas price recently. Looking ahead, the extensive cooling of the US labor market and the implementation of tariffs may support the gold price to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. For silver, it may run strongly in the short - term due to high market risk appetite, but in the medium - term, the focus should be on fundamentals, and caution is needed for the upside space [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On August 6, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,373.65/ounce, London silver spot was at $37.82/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,428.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $37.85/ounce. Compared with August 5, the price of gold rose 0.2% and silver rose 1.3%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - Price Spreads/Ratios: On August 6, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.74 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 32 yuan/kg. Compared with August 5, the spreads of some items changed, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 1.1% and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 6.7% [3]. Position Data - As of August 5, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 955.94 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15,044.47453 tons, with week - on - week increases of 0.12% and 0.15% respectively. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver decreased compared with the previous period, with the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold decreasing 11.64% and those of COMEX silver decreasing 2.00% [3]. Inventory Data - On August 6, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 36,045 kg, up 0.10% from August 5; SHFE silver inventory was 1,161,844 kg, up 0.39% from August 5. On August 5, COMEX gold inventory was 38,800,720 fine ounces, up 0.02% from August 4; COMEX silver inventory was 506,311,741 fine ounces, down 0.06% from August 4 [3]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.14, up 0.06% from August 5. The US dollar index was 98.76 on August 5, up 0.01% from August 4. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.72%, up 0.81% from August 4; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, unchanged from August 4. The VIX index was 17.85 on August 5, up 1.88% from August 4. The S&P 500 index was 6,299.19 on August 5, down 0.49% from August 4 [3]. Geopolitical and Economic News - Geopolitically, Israel's prime minister held a limited security meeting to fully re - occupy the Gaza Strip. Russia may make concessions to the US and propose an air cease - fire with Ukraine. The EU decided to suspend the anti - tariff measures against the US that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 [3]. - Economically, the US July ISM services index was only 50.1, the employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [3].