超级宏观周后，美国后市展望

Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening internal growth, with Private Domestic Final Sales (PDFP) growing only 1.2%, the lowest since early 2023[3] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the smallest gain since October of the previous year[21] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index at 2.8%, indicating inflationary pressures remain but are limited[25] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" (OBBBA) is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1 trillion by 2034, with $5.9 trillion in tax cuts and spending increases contributing to the deficit[34] - The U.S. Treasury expects net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion from July to September, significantly higher than previous estimates[39] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with no immediate plans for rate cuts despite concerns over labor market weakness[42] Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 9% since the beginning of the year, reflecting market concerns over trade tensions and fiscal sustainability[4] - U.S. equities may face short-term adjustments due to rising uncertainty and high valuations, but sectors like AI infrastructure and semiconductors are expected to offer medium-term opportunities[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.2%, with expectations of a trading range between 4.1%-4.5% for the year[4]