铁矿石：市场情绪偏谨慎，短期矿价区间运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from overseas ore supply weakens marginally. In August, overseas ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast - furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level [3]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2601 contract is 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE09 contract is 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of the black series continued to rise, with coking coal prices strengthening significantly again and iron ore prices remaining relatively stable. The finished product end faces the cost pressure of off - peak electricity for short - process production, and the market sentiment is cautious. The impact of finished product price fluctuations on iron ore needs to be monitored. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself needs to accumulate, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Supply - The short - term support from the supply side is weakening. Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments decline this period. The short - term arrival volume has rebounded from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The average daily hot metal production this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills is continuously rising, and the blast - furnace profit level is relatively good. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Whether hot metal production can remain at a high level needs to be monitored later [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume has dropped to a relatively low - to - medium level, the port inventory has decreased significantly this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal production, the inventory is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term [2].