【早间看点】MPOA马棕7月产量预计增加9.01% Secex巴西7月大豆出口1225.73万吨-20250807

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, crude oil, and financial instruments like stock index futures. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 10 closed at 4257.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.54% and an overnight decline of 0.23% [1]. - Price changes of major currencies are also given, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. The US dollar index was at 98.21 with a decline of 0.56% [1]. 02现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9100 with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are presented, like the CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 315 cents per bushel and the CNF quote is 480 dollars per ton [2]. 03重要基本面信息 - 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (August 11 - 15) for US soybean - producing states shows generally high temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median. Most states will have above - normal temperatures (A) and above - median precipitation (A) [3][4]. - The weather in the US Midwest will see a temperature drop later this week, with good soil moisture in most areas. There will be sporadic showers in different parts at different times [5]. - 国际供需 - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 is estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons, with different changes in different regions [7]. - SPPOMA data indicates that from August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and production decreased by 17.27% [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in different countries are given: Malaysia's 2024/25 production is estimated to be 19.2 million tons (up 1% from the previous forecast), Indonesia's is 48.8 million tons (unchanged), and Thailand's is 3.52 million tons (unchanged) [8]. - Nigeria plans to plant 100 million oil palm trees and revitalize the cocoa industry [8]. - Analysts expect US soybean export sales to increase by 30 - 80 thousand tons in the week ending July 31, 2025, with different projections for 2024/25 and 2025/26 [9]. - Brazil exported 12.25732536 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, with a 9% increase in daily average export volume compared to the same period last year [9]. - As of July 30, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 528.9 thousand tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 27.9605 million tons [10]. - Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK, and the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 20.3 million tons (unchanged) [10]. - 国内供需 - On August 6, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 52.8 thousand tons, a 185.41% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 311.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.5959 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 61.63%, a 1.18% increase from the previous day [12]. - From July 21 - 27, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises was 15.84 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and an 18.7% decrease year - on - year [13]. - On August 6, 2025, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.78, a 0.26 - point increase from the previous day [13]. 04宏观要闻 - 国际要闻 - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September 2025 is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [15]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week ending August 1, 2025, was 253.4, with different values for purchase and refinancing indices [15]. - The US global supply - chain pressure index in July 2025 was 0.07, down from 0.14 in the previous month [15]. - Fed's Kashkari believes that the Fed should respond to the economic slowdown and that two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [15]. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor - containing products, with exemptions for companies producing in the US [15]. - The US White House announced that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [15]. - As of August 1, 2025, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 235 thousand barrels, and the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [16]. - In June 2025, the euro - area retail trade volume increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year [16]. - 国内要闻 - On August 6, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1409, with a 43 - point increase (CNY depreciation) [18]. - On August 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan due to 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [18]. 05资金流向 - On August 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.244 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 3.11 billion yuan (including 0.31 billion yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.543 billion yuan in chemical futures, 2.487 billion yuan in black - series futures, and a net outflow of 1.23 billion yuan in metal futures), and stock index futures having a net inflow of 6.134 billion yuan [22]. - Capital flow data for various futures products are presented, such as the net capital inflow for CSI 1000 stock index futures is 49.35 and for CSI 500 stock index futures is 19.77 [21]. 06套利跟踪 No specific content provided.