纵览电商之十四：如何看待即时零售的增长空间和盈利路径

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [13] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of instant retail as a new growth point in the e-commerce sector, driven by the maturity of social fulfillment facilities and changing consumer habits towards convenience [4][7] - Instant retail is expected to achieve a market scale of 780 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 34% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing traditional retail and e-commerce growth [31] Summary by Sections Review of Instant Retail's History - The current explosion in instant retail is attributed to the maturity of fulfillment infrastructure and the shift in consumer behavior towards convenience, particularly in smaller household sizes and reduced stockpiling needs [8][35] - Platforms like Dingdong Maicai and Meituan have optimized their supply chains and warehousing efficiency, leading to improved profitability [8][39] Growth Potential - Instant retail has significant growth potential, with high-frequency and immediate product attributes allowing for strong category extension, particularly in fresh produce and daily necessities [9][49] - The report anticipates that the penetration of instant retail will expand from high-frequency items to lower-frequency categories like electronics and personal care products [9][49] Efficiency and Profitability - The report emphasizes that operational efficiency will be crucial for platforms to enhance profitability, with two main paths identified: expanding product offerings and optimizing cost structures through lower rental and operational costs [10][70] - The average profit margin for franchise models like Meituan's flash warehouse is projected to reach 5-10% [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three investment directions: platforms with supply and efficiency advantages such as Alibaba and Meituan, leading players in local delivery like SF Express, and brands with strong supply and distribution capabilities like Miniso [11]