宏观数据观察：东海观察7月进出口超预期回升，贸易顺差有所下降

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's import and export exceeded expectations, with export growth mainly due to increased exports to Europe and South Korea, and import growth mainly driven by price increases of commodities such as integrated circuits and agricultural products. The trade surplus was lower than expected due to a significant increase in imports. In the future, exports are expected to be supported by improved Sino - US trade and short - term US rush to import, while import growth is expected to remain low [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import and Export Totals - In July 2025, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 545.323 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous value. The top trading partners in terms of trade volume were ASEAN (trade volume of 86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, trade share of 15.78%), the EU (74.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%, trade share of 13.67%), the US (47.9 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, trade share of 8.79%), South Korea (28.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.28%, trade share of 5.14%), and Japan (27.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.95%, trade share of 5.02%) [1][3]. 3.2 Exports - In July 2025, exports were 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, better than the expected 5.4% and up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 54.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.59%, export share of 16.98%), the EU (50 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.24%, export share of 15.54%), the US (35.8 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%, with the decline widening by 5.54 percentage points, export share of 11.13%), Japan (12.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%, export share of 3.88%), and South Korea (12.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.63%, export share of 3.84%). The top export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.2%, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%), of which high - tech products accounted for 24.3%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The top five mechanical and electrical products were electronic components (14.23%), automobile and auto parts (10.37%), electrical equipment (9.67%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (8.69%), and household appliances (4.29%) [3][4]. 3.3 Imports - In July 2025, imports were 223.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the expected - 1% and up 3 percentage points from the previous value. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 31.4 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.76%, import share of 14.05%), the EU (24.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%, import share of 11.07%), Chinese Taipei (19.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.45%, import share of 8.67%), South Korea (15.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%, import share of 7.02%), and Japan (14.9 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.13%, import share of 6.68%). The top import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 40.68%, a year - on - year increase of 2.74%), of which electronic components such as integrated circuits accounted for 41.02% with a year - on - year increase of 13%. Other major import products included crude oil (10.68%), metal ores and concentrates (10.15%), and agricultural products (8.36%). In agricultural product imports, soybeans accounted for 27.44%, meat 10.99%, and dried and fresh fruits and nuts 9.33% [4]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In July 2025, the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.93%, lower than the expected 105 billion. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (8.3 billion, an increase of 0.826 billion), followed by auto parts (6.3 billion, a decrease of 0.036 billion). The largest trade deficits were in crude oil (23.8 billion, a decrease of 0.34 billion), integrated circuits (19.4 billion, an increase of 2.049 billion), and agricultural products (10.293 billion, a decrease of 0.112 billion) [4][5].