海康威视（002415）：25Q2延续高增长，毛利率验证高质量增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision [5] Core Views - Hikvision continues to demonstrate high-quality growth with Q2 2025 revenue of 23.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 14.9% to 3.62 billion yuan [1] - The company is embracing AI technology across its product lines, launching hundreds of AI model products and establishing a user feedback loop to refine offerings [3] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 is 45.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for core products and services reaching 48.52%, up 2.19 percentage points [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 41.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.66 billion yuan, up 11.7% [1] - Segment performance shows PBG revenue at 5.57 billion yuan (YoY -2.1%), EBG at 7.46 billion yuan (YoY -0.4%), SMBG at 4.07 billion yuan (YoY -29.8%), overseas business at 12.23 billion yuan (YoY +6.9%), and innovative business at 11.77 billion yuan (YoY +13.9%) [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The company is reducing low-margin product sales, focusing on delivering product value rather than competing solely on price [2] - Sales, management, and R&D expenses for Q2 2025 increased by 2.0%, decreased by 6.4%, and decreased by 1.0% respectively, indicating operational optimization [2] Growth Prospects - The report forecasts a net profit of 13.82 billion yuan for 2025 and 15.81 billion yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 18.81 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the AI model era due to its strong multi-modal models and extensive user base across various industries [3] Valuation Metrics - Current market capitalization is 263.8 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 19 for 2023, projected to decrease to 14 by 2027 [4][11] - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 7.42% for 2023, tapering to around 10.93% by 2027 [4]