需求弱化与高库存施压，PX、PTA下行趋势或难改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The downward trend of PX and PTA may be difficult to reverse due to weakening demand and high inventory. The polyester industry chain is expected to continue its weak operation, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of demand and the suppression of absolute high inventory. PTA processing fees may further shrink, and inventory reduction depends on large - scale production cuts or unexpectedly strong demand [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 6, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6,794.0 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 98.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,724.0 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost - end: On August 6, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.68 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 65.17 US dollars/barrel. OPEC + plans to increase production from August to September, and the pressure of oil price surplus is gradually materializing. The low - level oscillation of crude oil prices provides limited cost support for PX, but attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil supply disturbances caused by the North American hurricane season [2]. - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA main contracts maintains a contango structure, indicating a relatively loose supply pattern in the current spot market. The recent compression of PTA processing fees has led to production cuts in some plants, offsetting the output of newly - commissioned plants, and the supply pressure of TA has slightly decreased [2]. - Demand - end: The trading volume of Light Textile City has been continuously lower than the seasonal average, confirming the weak peak - season characteristics of terminal textile demand. The inventory pressure in the polyester segment is transmitted upstream in the industrial chain. Although large - scale polyester enterprises maintain rigid operation in the short term, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has not been fully released [2]. - Inventory - end: The current PTA factory inventory is at a medium level. The deterioration of processing fees has led to production cuts and load reduction in plants. The operating rate of downstream polyester segments remains at a low level characteristic of the off - season. Demand has not reached the end of the off - season, and there is no more positive support for the supply - demand situation at the PX end, with insufficient upward driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 6, 2025, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,414.0 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,480.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 66.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The futures prices of PX and PTA showed a trend of rising first and then falling from late July to early August 2025. PX dropped from a high of 6,984 yuan/ton to 6,794 yuan/ton, and PTA dropped from 4,856 yuan/ton to 4,724 yuan/ton, reflecting the weakening of cost support and a loose supply pattern [4]. - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City decreased from a high of 4940,000 meters to 4840,000 meters, indicating a marginal weakening of terminal replenishment momentum. The inventories of various polyester products are significantly higher than the five - year average, and the inventory pressure is fully prominent [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.89%, the trading volume increased by 21.42%, and the open interest decreased by 2.15%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 157.89% [5]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.90%, the trading volume increased by 33.21%, and the open interest decreased by 5.94%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 190.91%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 9.52%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17.07%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 25.00%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.39% [5]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 1.46%, the trading volume increased by 78.51%, and the open interest increased by 172.71%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The PF basis decreased by 59.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.23%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.47%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [5]. - Other: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spread of PTA decreased by 2.58%, while the processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on August 6 was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [6][8]. - Industrial chain load rate: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [6]. - Inventory days: From July 24 to July 31, 2025, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 0.51%, polyester POY by 16.77%, polyester FDY by 13.79%, and polyester DTY by 5.34% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On August 6, Trump said he might soon announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman, with four candidates, and Bessent hoped to stay in the Treasury. - On August 5, Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian crude oil, and India responded that the accusation was unfounded. - On August 5, Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting from September; if the unemployment rate rises further, it may cut interest rates by 50 basis points. - On August 5, Citigroup raised its gold price forecast for the next 0 - 3 months to 3,500 US dollars/ounce (previously 3,300 US dollars/ounce). - On August 5, Federal Reserve's Daly said the time for interest - rate cuts was approaching, and the number of interest - rate cuts within the year was more likely to be more than two. - On August 5, Trump said he would announce a candidate to fill the vacant Federal Reserve governor position in the next few days [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 6, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, etc., with data sources from Wind and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [9][11][13][15]. 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA being negative may indicate relatively sufficient spot supply. The price increases of PTA and PX may be supported by crude oil costs or due to supply shortages. Further analysis of factors such as plant maintenance and changes in operating rates is needed [33]. - Demand - end: The decline in the trading volume of Light Textile City may indicate weakening downstream demand, which in turn may lead to a decrease in PTA demand and put pressure on prices. The impact of polyester operating rates on PTA demand needs to be considered in combination with other factors [34]. - Inventory - end: Without specific inventory data, the change in inventory can be inferred from the supply and demand situation. If supply decreases while demand remains stable, inventory may decline; if supply increases while demand decreases, inventory may rise [34]. - Overall view: Future PX prices may fluctuate strongly, affected by crude oil and its own supply - demand situation. PTA prices may be limited in upward space or under pressure due to weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [36].