AI主线归来的探讨

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that historically, sectors that initiate early and complete a round of adjustment tend to start a second wave of growth, becoming long-term leaders. The AI sector has met the conditions for a renewed focus after a 3-5 month adjustment and a gradual rise over the past two months, characterized by low crowding and sustained long-term logic driven by capital expenditure guidance [2][3]. - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of major tech companies in the US and China is expected to significantly increase, with Tencent's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue and Alibaba's capital expenditure as a percentage of operating profit projected to rise substantially in 2025-2026. This is anticipated to support absolute and excess returns in the domestic AI industry [4][20]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 will be a critical year for the commercialization of AI applications overseas, with potential catalysts for overseas mapping and penetration rate increases. Companies with revenue growth expectations are likely to see more favorable valuations in the AI application sector [5][28]. Group 2 - The report discusses the current market environment, noting that AI sectors have a good probability of success due to their low crowding levels, which are at par with the lowest levels seen in March. Most segments have shown upward movement since the end of June but have not yet returned to their February peaks [3][12]. - It is noted that the capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers (CSPs) in the US is expected to continue its growth trend, with a projected year-on-year increase of nearly 40% in 2025. This ongoing capital expenditure is expected to sustain the cycle of computing power and contribute to an upward economic cycle [3][12]. - The report identifies a mapping of AI investment sectors in both the US and China, indicating that major internet platforms are leading industry trends. The domestic internet giants are entering a new round of AI infrastructure investment, which is expected to support the overall growth of the AI sector [4][20].