Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 09:26Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-08-07 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui [3] - Qualification Number: Futures practice qualification number F03123381, Futures investment consulting practice certificate number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term, light - position long positions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,795 US dollars/ton, a rise of 45 US dollars/ton. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,961 lots, an increase of 4,545 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 61,724 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,305 tons. The LME inventory was 89,225 tons (daily), a decrease of 3,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,510 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,660 yuan/ton, a rise of 240 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 9.79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.37 US dollars/ton. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,030 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 45,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), an increase of 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 87,300 tons (weekly), an increase of 3,000 tons. [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 130,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles (monthly), an increase of 166,600 vehicles. The air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units (monthly), an increase of 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 8.93% (daily), a decrease of 0.4%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.33% (daily), a decrease of 0.24%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Modi is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US, such as Apple and TSMC, are exempted. - The differences in the US - Japan trade agreement continue, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [3]