Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 09:49Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated widely. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining above 50% for three consecutive months. The weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, steel mills have good profits, production enthusiasm has increased, the macro - expectation is positive, and with the strong operation of coking coal, there is cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,231.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,628,167 lots, down 24,402 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 59,090 lots, up 34,080 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 93,491 tons, up 4,235 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,487 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,090.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, down 0.56 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, up 4.34 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1536 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2118 million tons, up 101,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 48.49%, up 2.22 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.682 million tons, up 60,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8848 million tons, up 43,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 938,400 tons, up 17,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - According to customs data on August 7, in July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The actual rebar output this period was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,500 tons; the social inventory was 3.8848 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,400 tons; the total inventory was 5.5668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,900 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 73,800 tons [2].