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瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250807

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macroeconomically, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the US economy is slowing, making short - term interest rate cuts a possible policy option. In terms of supply - demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, arrivals increased, and domestic port inventories declined; hot metal and key steel mills' crude steel daily output decreased. Overall, the short - term market is mixed, the position of the September contract continues to shrink as it approaches delivery, and the market may enter a range - bound consolidation. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. Operationally, short - term trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the position was 335,365 lots, down 22,928 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 18.5 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 4,804 lots, up 6,732 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,900 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at $102.2/ton at 15:00, up $0.40 [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 829 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 717 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 36 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was $101.20/ton, down $0.45. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fines was 3.32, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,061.80 million tons, down 139.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) was 2,622.40 million tons, up 302.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,222.01 million tons, down 173.67 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,012.09 million tons, up 126.87 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.09 million tons, down 2.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.32%, down 2.36 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.00 million tons, down 2.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,994, up 73. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.87/ton, up $0.23; from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.15/ton, up $0.50 [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.43%, down 3.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.90%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.76%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.19%, down 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sintering powder of 114 steel mills was 2,756.28 million tons, a decrease of 74.41 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintering powder was 116.14 million tons, an increase of 0.44 million tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.73, a decrease of 0.74 from the previous period. In July, China imported 10,462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 69,656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2] Key Focus - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization [2]