半导体行业8月投资策略：看好本土制造产业链和周期性复苏的模拟芯片

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, focusing on domestic manufacturing supply chains and the cyclical recovery of analog chips [1] Market Review - In July 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 3.08%, underperforming the electronics sector by 3.51 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points [14] - The semiconductor sub-sectors showed varied performance, with discrete devices (+8.21%), semiconductor equipment (+3.75%), and integrated circuit packaging and testing (+3.48%) leading the gains, while semiconductor materials (+0.94%), analog chip design (+1.82%), and digital chip design (+2.72%) lagged behind [14][21] Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.91 billion in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, continuing a trend of positive growth for 20 consecutive months [5][42] - China's semiconductor sales amounted to $17.24 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8% [5][55] - The global semiconductor wafer shipment area in Q2 2025 was 3.327 billion square inches, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9% [6][55] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on domestic manufacturing companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Northern Huachuang, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others, as the recovery in silicon wafer shipments indicates an end to inventory destocking and increased demand [6] - The report highlights the strong recovery in industrial sectors, with Texas Instruments reporting revenue growth across all downstream sectors except for automotive, which saw a decline [6] - The report suggests that domestic analog chip companies are entering a phase of scaling up production for new products developed in recent years, recommending companies like Sanan Optoelectronics, Siwei Technology, and others [6] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the active fund's semiconductor heavy holdings accounted for 10.1% of the portfolio, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [4][39] - The top five semiconductor heavy holdings represented 37.1% of the portfolio, slightly down from 37.9% in Q1 2025 [39] Valuation Insights - As of July 31, 2025, the SW semiconductor index had a TTM PE ratio of 87.13x, positioned at the 67.15 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation [25][30] - The report notes that integrated circuit packaging and testing, as well as semiconductor equipment, have lower PE ratios of 54x and 57x respectively, while analog chip design and digital chip design have higher valuations of 138x and 94x respectively [25]