瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.43%. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 6, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.02 million tons from last week, with a slightly slower shipment speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the trading is priced according to quality, with an overall slowdown in shipment speed. Some early - maturing varieties' purchase prices are falling, while the opening price of Gala apples is acceptable. With the old - crop inventory still providing some support but a general trading atmosphere, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is expected to continue rising in the short term and has stood above the 20 - day moving average. It is recommended to trade with a light - position trial long, while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7940 yuan/ton, the main - contract holding volume was 73071 hands, the warehouse - receipt quantity was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1066 hands. The main - contract holding volume decreased by 1543 hands, and the net long position decreased by 712 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged, at 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5128.51 million tons, the apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg (a weekly increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg (a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg) [2] Industry Situation - The national apple cold - storage total inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons from last week. The storage - capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples were 0.09 and 0.02 respectively, both decreasing by 0.01 from last week. The monthly apple export volume was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons were 10.64 yuan/kg, 3.73 yuan/kg, and 5.92 yuan/kg respectively. The average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.08 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets were 7.4, 10, and 15.6 respectively, with an increase of 0.6 vehicles at the Jiangmen market and 1 vehicle at the Chalong market [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples were 20%, with decreases of 0.9% and 0.84% respectively [2] Industry News - On August 7, 2025, early - maturing Gala and Luli apples in the western production areas were on the market, with general purchasing enthusiasm from merchants and transactions priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, smooth - skinned Luli apples were gradually on the market, with chaotic prices due to fruit size and redness. The inventory of Fuji apples remained light in the market, with prices stable but weak [2]