Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:00Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand is relatively stable, and the industry outlook is gradually improving under policy guidance. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage where supply remains high but the growth rate slows down, demand is weak due to the off - season, and inventory slightly accumulates. In the long term, the outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization. For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens in the off - season. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,621.50 US dollars/ton, up 56.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all increased, with increases of 7,409 hands, 3,692 hands, and 362 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1,150 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,900 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.14 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum all increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous increased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum decreased by 595 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased by 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 52.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 4,084.65 tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 4 million tons, and the import volume increased by 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.50 million tons, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 5.20 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles, and the national real estate climate index decreased by 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons, and the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days and 40 days decreased by 0.39% and 0.09% respectively [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0016%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0102 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on policy adjustment and inflation. The central bank's net liquidity injection in July decreased compared with the previous month, and the retail industry's prosperity index in August increased [2]. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of the new energy market increased by 14% year - on - year [2].