Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-07 09:53Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For corn, international corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent - rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, factors such as import corn reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook on forward corn prices. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures price is generally bearish [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand imbalance is obvious. The resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises increases supply pressure, while downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory has increased, and the starch futures price has been oscillating weakly at a low level, also suggesting a bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2267 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and a decrease in the number of registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased. The CS - C spread of the main contract has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and unchanged registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 402 cents/bushel, with an increase in total positions and an increase in non - commercial net long positions [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.49 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. The flat - hold price at Jinzhou Port has decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased slightly, and the international freight remains unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract has decreased, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn has increased [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted yields of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged. The sown areas also remain stable [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports has increased, while that at northern ports has decreased. The inventory of deep - processing corn has decreased [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn has decreased, and the monthly export volume of corn starch has increased [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed has increased [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The consumption of deep - processing corn has increased, and the开机率 of alcohol and starch enterprises has increased [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong and Jilin has increased, while that in Hebei has decreased [2]. Option Market - The historical volatility of corn has changed slightly, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options has decreased [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending July 31, 2025, to be between 150 and 290 tons. The Bystro Canal at the mouth of the Danube in Ukraine will reopen, which is expected to have a positive impact on grain exports and the shipping market. The excellent - rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation [2].