原油、燃料油日报：供应增量对冲库存去化，原油继续偏弱震荡-20250807

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal downside risk of crude oil prices is increasing. Supply increments from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there are signs of medium - term supply loosening pressure. Although the high refinery utilization rate in the US and the destocking of refined oil products provide short - term support, weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. - Overall, the supply side may face increasing pressure, while the demand side shows strong US refinery demand but weak Asian fuel oil demand. The short - term oil price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with a risk of decline, though US inventory reduction and high refinery demand may offer some support [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data: On August 6, the price of the SC main contract dropped slightly to 505.9 yuan/barrel (previous value: 508.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.57%), while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 65.17 dollars/barrel and 67.68 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC against Brent and WTI weakened, and the spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 months also slightly shrank, indicating near - end price pressure [2]. - Supply - Side Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances continue. Russia may increase its oil exports to the West to 2 million barrels per day in August, and Iraq plans to resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline. The US EIA crude oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate reached a high of 96.9%, suggesting strong short - term North American production activities [3]. - Demand - Side Analysis: US refinery demand is strong, with gasoline and refined oil inventories decreasing, supporting cracking margins. However, Asian fuel oil demand is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market remains weak. There is a differentiation in regional demand, as shown by the slight decline in the Japanese refinery utilization rate and changes in gasoline and kerosene inventories [4]. - Inventory - Side Analysis: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels unexpectedly, and refined oil destocking accelerated, verifying demand resilience. Japanese commercial crude oil inventories also decreased, but the digestion capacity of Russia's incremental exports for global on - land inventories needs attention [5]. - Price Trend Judgment: The expected increase in exports from Russia and Iraq may offset the support from OPEC+ production cuts, and there is potential medium - term supply loosening pressure. The high refinery utilization rate in the US and refined oil destocking provide short - term support, but weak Asian fuel oil demand and a slowdown in global manufacturing activities may limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in August and the progress of Middle East exports [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: Prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures all declined on August 6 compared to the previous day. The spreads between different crude oil varieties changed, and the US dollar index decreased while the S&P 500 and DAX index increased. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the refinery utilization rate increased [8]. - Fuel Oil: Most fuel oil prices remained stable or changed slightly on August 6. The spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and China decreased slightly. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, while some US fuel oil inventories decreased [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: US EIA crude oil imports decreased, and the planned production of crude oil increased. Russia plans to increase oil exports to the West, and Iraq may resume exports through the Ceyhan pipeline [10][11]. - Demand: US EIA crude oil and distillate fuel oil production implied demand increased, and the refinery utilization rate was higher than expected. However, gasoline and refined oil production decreased [12]. - Inventory: US EIA strategic petroleum reserve, refined oil, gasoline, and crude oil inventories all changed. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and Japanese commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased while kerosene inventory increased [13][15]. - Market Information: The prices of blending raw materials for oil mixing decreased, and the prices of domestic marine fuel oil decreased moderately. In the trading market, the trading volume is low, and the price center has not shifted significantly [16]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts related to crude oil and fuel oil, including prices, production, inventories, and refinery utilization rates, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [17][19][21]