Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly volatile, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is in an oversupply state and is under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - The zinc market has an outer - strong and inner - weak fundamental situation. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. - The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. - The Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - The industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Detailed Summaries by Categories Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed up near the MA60 moving average. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory remained flat compared to Monday, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.9 tons. The peak inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Casting aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry profit is poor. In the medium - term, it has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. The anti - involution theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties. The price of bauxite is firm during the overseas rainy season. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is relatively limited [2]. Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are positive. LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The zinc spot import loss has widened to more than 1,600 yuan/ton. The outer market pulls the inner market up, and bulls return periodically. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the start - up of secondary lead production in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The SMM refined lead price remained flat. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 80 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The lead social inventory decreased by 0.18 tons to 71,100 tons. New orders of battery enterprises in August have improved. There are still regular maintenance plans for large primary lead smelters from late August to early September. Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The anti - involution theme in the domestic market is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. Nickel iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of inventory reduction. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in positions during the session, and it is expected to be in a volatile market. Overseas tin prices are supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, one should pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and weak consumption. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased trading volume, and market trading contracted. After the repeated price fluctuations, the futures and spot markets were unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods began to enter the market. The downstream inquiry behavior was active, and the spot market trading improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious. The downstream increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which clearly follows the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, and the spot manufacturers' quotations remained stable. On the supply side, according to SMM, the expected output of industrial silicon in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Sichuan and Yunnan continue to increase the start - up rate, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 plans. The downstream polysilicon is expected to have an incremental demand of about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the large organic silicon accident factory is still in the process of resuming production, and the expected demand increase is not large. Therefore, the industrial silicon supply is under pressure. Currently, the futures price has corrected significantly, and affected by the expected supply policy of Xinjiang, it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly down, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed material remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The price and inventory transmission in the component link still have blockages, and the spot price increase of polysilicon is expected to be slow. Under the pattern of futures premium, the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 lots, but the total scale is still at a low level relative to the positions. The details of capacity storage have not been updated, and affected by policy regulation, the PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10].
有色金属日报-20250807
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-07 10:05